LOW
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- LOW −0.87% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, 52-week low (Oct 2): After its 3 new 52-week lows in the past 5 years, LOW typically lost 0.1% over the next day (median) and was higher only 33% of the time. An ordinary day: +0.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after new 52-week lows, that ranks #237 of 272. (Low confidence: few independent periods.)
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#331 H | +0.1%#409 H | +0.1%#377 H | -0.5%#408 M |
| Big drop (-1.9% or worse) | 64 | +0.1%#232 H | +0.4%#269 H | -0.6%#492 H | -0.5%#407 M |
| Big gain (+2.0% or better) | 65 | -0.1%#396 H | +0.1%#381 H | +0.7%#330 H | +0.2%#360 M |
| Earnings beat | 20 | +0.1%#227 H | +0.4%#233 H | -1.9%#416 H | -1.1%#344 M |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 6 | -0.4%#421 L | +1.2%#193 L | +5.1%#142 L | -8.5%#406 L |
| 52-week low latest session | 4 | -0.1%#237 L | +4.0%#22 L | +6.0%#74 L | -2.6%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 13 | -0.1%#358 M | -0.6%#385 M | +1.8%#201 M | +5.6%#157 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 13 | -0.6%#484 M | +1.3%#59 M | -0.1%#322 M | +7.5%#137 M |
| RSI oversold | 13 | -0.6%#389 M | -0.2%#397 M | -0.4%#494 M | 0.0%#417 M |
| RSI overbought | 14 | +0.7%#120 M | +1.4%#96 M | -0.2%#283 M | -6.7%#497 M |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is LOW's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 14 | +0.68% (-0.3 to +1.4) | Medium | #120 of 501 | 57% | +0.88% |
-2%
+5%
|
|
| 1 week | 14 | +1.37% (-0.5 to +3.0) | Medium | #96 of 501 | 64% | +1.08% |
-4%
+6%
|
|
| 1 month | 14 ≈13 indep. | -0.20% (-4.4 to +2.3) | Medium | #283 of 501 | 50% | +0.01% |
-17%
+11%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 14 ≈9 indep. | -6.66% (-9.3 to -3.9) | Medium | #497 of 501 | 14% | -8.44% |
-23%
+17%
|
Range of outcomes: all of LOW's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 11 | +1.4%M vs 0.0% | +1.8%M vs 0.0% | -0.7%M vs 0.0% | -7.1%L vs -2.6% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 1 | +0.6%– vs +0.1% | -3.1%– vs +0.1% | -10.8%– vs +1.2% | -3.9%– vs +6.4% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 12 | +1.1%M vs 0.0% | +1.4%M vs 0.0% | -2.3%M vs -0.1% | -6.7%M vs -2.6% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 14 | +0.7%M vs +0.1% | +1.4%M vs 0.0% | -0.2%M vs -0.7% | -6.7%M vs -2.2% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where LOW stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | Feb 11 @ $283.91 | RSI 70.7, +0.8% on the day | -0.5% | -3.1% | -17.2% | -22.8% |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Jan 9 @ $263.12 | RSI 74.6, +4.3% on the day | +1.4% | +3.9% | +7.0% | -7.1% |
| Sep 4, 2025 | Sep 4 @ $259.24 | RSI 71.8, +1.5% on the day | +2.0% | +3.0% | -6.9% | -6.2% |
| Aug 12, 2025 | Aug 12 @ $239.94 | RSI 70.7, +2.1% on the day | +4.7% | +4.7% | +11.2% | -4.4% |
| Oct 8, 2024 | Oct 8 @ $262.69 | RSI 73.0, +1.8% on the day | +1.4% | +3.1% | -3.8% | -9.3% |
| Sep 19, 2024 | Sep 19 @ $250.89 | RSI 73.4, +1.7% on the day | -0.3% | +1.8% | +7.9% | -3.9% |
| Jul 17, 2024 | Jul 17 @ $232.50 | RSI 71.4, +0.9% on the day | -1.5% | -4.2% | -0.7% | +16.5% |
| Mar 20, 2024 | Mar 20 @ $239.89 | RSI 73.4, +1.6% on the day | +3.6% | +0.5% | -8.6% | -9.3% |
| Feb 28, 2024 | Feb 28 @ $227.36 | RSI 72.1, +1.4% on the day | +0.8% | +1.0% | +6.7% | -9.8% |
| Dec 13, 2023 | Dec 13 @ $204.10 | RSI 70.7, +3.2% on the day | +4.7% | +3.0% | +2.3% | +14.2% |
| Jul 12, 2023 | Jul 12 @ $217.57 | RSI 70.3, +1.2% on the day | -1.1% | -0.5% | -4.4% | -12.2% |
| Aug 16, 2022 | Aug 16 @ $197.61 | RSI 72.0, +2.9% on the day | +0.6% | -3.1% | -10.8% | -3.9% |
| Dec 7, 2021 | Dec 7 @ $234.04 | RSI 72.2, +2.3% on the day | -0.1% | -1.7% | +0.3% | -11.8% |
| Nov 12, 2021 | Nov 12 @ $215.28 | RSI 72.0, +1.7% on the day | -0.6% | +5.6% | +6.8% | -4.1% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.