LOW
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- LOW +3.91% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +3.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.9% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.0%): After its 65 big gains in the past 5 years, LOW was higher a week later 35 times out of 65; half the outcomes fell between -2.2% and +2.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 4 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 39% positive over the week.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Evercore ISI Group maintained In-Line, lowered target $220 → $190.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LOW only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
191.19 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
194.81 +3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 195.68 · prior close 188.31 | |
| Bargain buy side |
185.47 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
182.02 -3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 184.56 | 2 in 10 days | 192.14 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 185.47 | 3 in 10 days | 191.19 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 186.33 | 4 in 10 days | 190.31 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 180.03 | 2 in 10 weeks | 196.97 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 182.02 | 3 in 10 weeks | 194.81 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 183.91 | 4 in 10 weeks | 192.82 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LOW's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among LOW's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 300.00 +53.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 13, 2026 |
284.26 +45.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 252.42 +29.0% |
| 200-day average | 227.43 +16.2% |
| 50-day average | 200.20 +2.3% |
| Now | 195.68 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 194.81 -0.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 190.00 -2.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
188.31 -3.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 182.02 -7.0% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 5, 2026 |
179.50 -8.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.