LPLA
Moving with the market
- LPLA −0.14% on the last session vs SPY +0.03%: −0.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LPLA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
330.08 +2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
338.45 +4.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 323.02 · prior close 323.46 | |
| Bargain buy side |
316.97 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
309.13 -4.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 314.89 | 2 in 10 days | 332.26 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 316.97 | 3 in 10 days | 330.08 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 318.92 | 4 in 10 days | 328.06 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 304.62 | 2 in 10 weeks | 343.47 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 309.13 | 3 in 10 weeks | 338.45 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 313.40 | 4 in 10 weeks | 333.84 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LPLA's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among LPLA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jul 30, 2025 |
397.23 +23.0% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 9, 2026 |
392.14 +21.4% |
| 50-day average | 343.24 +6.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 338.45 +4.8% |
| 200-day average | 325.20 +0.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
323.46 +0.1% |
| Now | 323.02 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 309.13 -4.3% |
| 52-week closing low May 28, 2026 |
265.65 -17.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.