LRCX
Moving with its chip equipment peers
- LRCX −4.61% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −4.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed after the close: EPS $2.18 expected (25 analysts); it moved ±6.5% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Chip equipment basket -3.0% (-3.1 pts vs SPY; TER -5.3%, AMAT -3.9%, KLAC -2.7%, ASML +0.1%): the stock moved with its peers. Overnight: Tokyo Electron (Tokyo) -8.0%.
- Aftermath, big drop (-4.6% today so far, past its big-drop line of -3.8%): After its 60 big drops in the past 5 years, LRCX was higher a month later 41 times out of 60; half the outcomes fell between -2.6% and +11.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight, raised target $367 → $385.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.8× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LRCX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
296.22 +3.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
308.14 +7.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 273.70 · prior close 286.92 | |
| Bargain buy side |
277.91 -3.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
267.16 -6.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 275.04 | 2 in 10 days | 299.31 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 277.91 | 3 in 10 days | 296.22 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 280.61 | 4 in 10 days | 293.38 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 261.04 | 2 in 10 weeks | 315.37 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 267.16 | 3 in 10 weeks | 308.14 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 272.99 | 4 in 10 weeks | 301.56 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LRCX's daily swings (about 3.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | -5.6% | -9.6% | +7.1% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -5.2% | +1.9% | +7.4% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.6% | -4.0% | -17.9% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -4.6% | -4.0% | +1.6% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -4.3% | -0.4% | +3.6% | -10.5% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -6.9% | +6.1% | -5.7% | +6.1% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | -5.7% | -7.6% | -28.9% | -16.8% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -5.0% | +1.5% | -15.1% | -27.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among LRCX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 500.00 +82.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 30, 2026 |
432.87 +58.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 375.81 +37.3% |
| 50-day average | 309.65 +13.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 308.14 +12.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 290.00 +6.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
286.92 +4.8% |
| 200-day average | 281.05 +2.7% |
| Now | 273.70 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 267.16 -2.4% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
137.67 -49.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 42 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.