LSCC
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- LSCC −6.77% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −6.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.8× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LSCC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
118.80 +3.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
123.67 +7.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 107.22 · prior close 115.00 | |
| Bargain buy side |
111.32 -3.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
106.93 -7.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 110.15 | 2 in 10 days | 120.06 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 111.32 | 3 in 10 days | 118.80 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 112.42 | 4 in 10 days | 117.64 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 104.44 | 2 in 10 weeks | 126.63 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 106.93 | 3 in 10 weeks | 123.67 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 109.31 | 4 in 10 weeks | 120.98 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LSCC's daily swings (about 3.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -4.6% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -11.1% | +10.1% | +13.8% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -5.0% | +1.3% | +9.7% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -6.4% | -6.5% | -12.6% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -7.0% | +0.7% | -11.4% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -7.0% | -3.2% | -11.1% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -4.9% | -4.0% | -3.5% | -3.6% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -4.4% | -4.6% | -15.1% | -14.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among LSCC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 22, 2026 |
155.27 +44.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 123.67 +15.3% |
| 50-day average | 120.74 +12.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
115.00 +7.3% |
| 200-day average | 114.63 +6.9% |
| Now | 107.22 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 106.93 -0.3% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 17, 2025 |
61.73 -42.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 37 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.