LULU
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- LULU +5.04% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +5.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+5.0% today so far, past its big-gain line of +3.1%): After its 61 big gains in the past 5 years, LULU was higher a week later 35 times out of 61; half the outcomes fell between -2.1% and +3.7%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LULU only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
96.61 +2.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
99.82 +6.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 98.83 · prior close 94.09 | |
| Bargain buy side |
91.64 -2.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
88.69 -5.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 90.85 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 97.44 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 91.64 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 96.61 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 92.37 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 95.84 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 87.01 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 101.75 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 88.69 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 99.82 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 90.29 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 98.05 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LULU's daily swings (about 2.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among LULU's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 29, 2023 |
511.29 +417.3% |
| Highest analyst target | 255.00 +158.0% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 6, 2026 |
215.88 +118.4% |
| 200-day average | 139.71 +41.4% |
| 50-day average | 107.29 +8.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 104.91 +6.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 99.82 +1.0% |
| Now | 98.83 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
94.09 -4.8% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 7, 2026 |
91.88 -7.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 88.69 -10.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 44.00 -55.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 19 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.