LUMN
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- LUMN +1.45% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.4× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LUMN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
4.73 +3.9% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
4.95 +8.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 4.62 · prior close 4.55 | |
| Bargain buy side |
4.38 -3.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
4.18 -8.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 4.33 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 4.79 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 4.38 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 4.73 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 4.43 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 4.67 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 4.06 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 5.09 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 4.18 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 4.95 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 4.29 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 4.83 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LUMN's daily swings (about 3.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -5.9% | — | — | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -6.8% | -3.9% | +5.7% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -9.4% | +3.5% | +13.7% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -6.9% | -5.6% | -10.8% | -21.7% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -5.5% | -17.2% | -35.1% | -31.8% |
| May 19, 2026 | -5.0% | +18.3% | -10.8% | -33.3% |
| May 7, 2026 | -13.8% | +22.2% | +6.5% | -26.2% |
| Apr 6, 2026 | -5.2% | +17.5% | +39.2% | -2.9% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | -3.2% | +1.6% | — | — |
| Nov 1, 2023 | -32.9% | +32.7% | +51.0% | +32.7% |
| Sep 26, 2023 | -6.5% | +0.8% | +3.1% | +38.5% |
| Aug 22, 2023 | -7.4% | +4.0% | +2.0% | -8.6% |
| Jul 17, 2023 | -8.1% | +7.6% | -0.6% | -22.4% |
| May 23, 2023 | -3.7% | -5.7% | -13.3% | -27.6% |
| Apr 13, 2023 | -4.5% | -7.2% | +0.4% | -21.3% |
| Mar 10, 2023 | -6.9% | -7.5% | -4.1% | -32.8% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among LUMN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 3, 2014 |
20.67 +347.7% |
| 52-week closing high Nov 3, 2025 |
11.83 +156.3% |
| 200-day average | 7.44 +61.2% |
| 50-day average | 6.10 +32.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 4.95 +7.3% |
| Now | 4.62 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
4.55 -1.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
4.55 -1.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 4.18 -9.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.