LUNR
Reddit attention is surging
- LUNR +1.41% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Against the group: its space peers -2.8% (-2.9 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 82 big drops in the past 5 years, LUNR was higher a day later 39 times out of 82; half the outcomes fell between -4.0% and +2.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.2× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LUNR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
11.57 +5.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
12.28 +11.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 11.18 · prior close 11.02 | |
| Bargain buy side |
10.50 -4.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
9.89 -10.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 10.33 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 11.75 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 10.50 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 11.57 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 10.65 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 11.40 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 9.55 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 12.72 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 9.89 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 12.28 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 10.22 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 11.89 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LUNR's daily swings (about 5.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | -9.1% | -7.8% | -8.5% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -7.9% | +22.8% | +42.1% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -9.5% | +2.0% | +41.4% | -18.0% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | -8.7% | +5.6% | -32.5% | -20.3% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | -13.1% | -17.4% | -44.2% | -47.9% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -14.5% | -21.6% | -44.2% | -56.1% |
| May 26, 2026 | -8.9% | +13.5% | -46.4% | -52.4% |
| May 15, 2026 | -7.2% | +12.9% | -31.1% | -39.9% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among LUNR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 22, 2023 |
81.99 +633.7% |
| 52-week closing high May 28, 2026 |
45.70 +308.9% |
| Highest analyst target | 43.00 +284.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 29.50 +164.0% |
| 200-day average | 20.17 +80.5% |
| 50-day average | 15.32 +37.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 13.00 +16.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 12.28 +9.9% |
| Now | 11.18 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
11.02 -1.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 9.89 -11.5% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
8.05 -28.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.