LUV
Moving with its group (JETS +2.2%)
- LUV +2.59% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed after the close: EPS $0.57 expected (21 analysts); it moved ±7.1% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The airlines ETF (JETS) +2.2% (+2.1 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 62 big drops in the past 5 years, LUV was higher a day later 39 times out of 62; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +1.8%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Susquehanna maintained Neutral, lowered target $50.00 → $45.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LUV only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
40.02 +1.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
40.88 +3.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 40.36 · prior close 39.34 | |
| Bargain buy side |
38.67 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
37.86 -3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 38.45 | 2 in 10 days | 40.25 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 38.67 | 3 in 10 days | 40.02 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 38.87 | 4 in 10 days | 39.81 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 37.39 | 2 in 10 weeks | 41.40 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 37.86 | 3 in 10 weeks | 40.88 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 38.30 | 4 in 10 weeks | 40.41 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LUV's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | -2.8% | +0.8% | +8.6% | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -3.7% | -0.3% | +5.2% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -3.8% | -4.4% | -15.2% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -4.2% | +9.9% | -10.4% | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | -2.7% | -6.2% | -9.8% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -2.7% | -3.8% | -1.3% | -14.9% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -3.5% | +1.3% | +24.9% | -5.1% |
| May 19, 2026 | -2.6% | +16.9% | +29.0% | +11.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among LUV's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 65.00 +61.1% |
| All-time closing high Jan 2, 2018 |
59.17 +46.6% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 18, 2026 |
54.07 +34.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 49.22 +22.0% |
| 200-day average | 43.18 +7.0% |
| 50-day average | 41.22 +2.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 40.88 +1.3% |
| Now | 40.36 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
39.34 -2.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 37.86 -6.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 34.00 -15.8% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
29.15 -27.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.