LVS
Moving with its group (XLY +1.5%)
- LVS +1.97% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed after the close: EPS $0.74 expected (14 analysts); it moved ±7.7% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) +1.5% (+1.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 13): After its 52 big gains in the past 5 years, LVS was higher a day later 29 times out of 52; half the outcomes fell between -0.8% and +1.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Overweight, lowered target $59.00 → $57.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LVS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
37.53 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
38.18 +3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 37.75 · prior close 37.02 | |
| Bargain buy side |
36.51 -1.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
35.90 -3.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 36.35 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 37.70 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 36.51 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 37.53 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 36.67 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 37.38 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 35.54 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 38.56 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 35.90 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 38.18 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 36.24 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 37.82 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LVS's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among LVS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 2, 2007 |
90.47 +139.7% |
| Highest analyst target | 71.50 +89.4% |
| 52-week closing high Dec 1, 2025 |
68.29 +80.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 58.65 +55.4% |
| 200-day average | 49.94 +32.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 47.00 +24.5% |
| 50-day average | 41.87 +10.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 38.18 +1.1% |
| Now | 37.75 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
37.02 -1.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 35.90 -4.9% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 7, 2026 |
35.81 -5.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 22 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.