LYB
Moving with its group (XLB +1.4%)
- LYB +2.29% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +2.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- The materials ETF (XLB) +1.4% (+1.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg ($62.57 today so far, above its 200-day average of $61.70): After its 9 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, LYB was higher a week later 7 times out of 9; half the outcomes fell between +0.4% and +3.6%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LYB only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
62.23 +1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
63.57 +3.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 62.57 · prior close 61.17 | |
| Bargain buy side |
60.13 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
58.86 -3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 59.79 | 2 in 10 days | 62.58 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 60.13 | 3 in 10 days | 62.23 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 60.44 | 4 in 10 days | 61.91 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 58.13 | 2 in 10 weeks | 64.37 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 58.86 | 3 in 10 weeks | 63.57 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 59.55 | 4 in 10 weeks | 62.83 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LYB's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among LYB's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 3, 2024 |
89.29 +42.7% |
| Highest analyst target | 88.00 +40.6% |
| 52-week closing high Mar 30, 2026 |
80.69 +29.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 67.94 +8.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 63.57 +1.6% |
| Now | 62.57 |
| 50-day average | 62.15 -0.7% |
| 200-day average | 61.80 -1.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
61.17 -2.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 58.86 -5.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 56.00 -10.5% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 6, 2025 |
39.87 -36.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.