LYV
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- LYV +2.53% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.5% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.2%): After its 56 big gains in the past 5 years, LYV was higher a week later 37 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +2.6%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LYV only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
170.61 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
172.83 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 173.12 · prior close 168.84 | |
| Bargain buy side |
167.08 -1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
164.94 -2.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 166.52 | 2 in 10 days | 171.19 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 167.08 | 3 in 10 days | 170.61 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 167.61 | 4 in 10 days | 170.08 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 163.69 | 2 in 10 weeks | 174.15 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 164.94 | 3 in 10 weeks | 172.83 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 166.11 | 4 in 10 weeks | 171.61 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LYV's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among LYV's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 222.00 +28.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 201.96 +16.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 14, 2026 |
188.46 +8.9% |
| 50-day average | 175.43 +1.3% |
| Now | 173.12 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 172.83 -0.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
168.84 -2.5% |
| 200-day average | 165.11 -4.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 164.94 -4.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 145.00 -16.2% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 24, 2025 |
125.61 -27.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.