MAA
Moving with the market
- MAA −0.02% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −0.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 8): After its 61 big gains in the past 5 years, MAA was higher a day later 25 times out of 61; half the outcomes fell between -1.3% and +0.8%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MAA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
116.80 +1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
118.28 +2.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 115.60 · prior close 115.62 | |
| Bargain buy side |
114.45 -1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
113.02 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 114.07 | 2 in 10 days | 117.19 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 114.45 | 3 in 10 days | 116.80 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 114.80 | 4 in 10 days | 116.44 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 112.19 | 2 in 10 weeks | 119.15 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 113.02 | 3 in 10 weeks | 118.28 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 113.80 | 4 in 10 weeks | 117.47 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MAA's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among MAA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 31, 2021 |
191.15 +65.4% |
| Highest analyst target | 160.00 +38.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 141.40 +22.3% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 2, 2026 |
140.56 +21.6% |
| 200-day average | 128.48 +11.1% |
| 50-day average | 124.54 +7.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 121.00 +4.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 118.28 +2.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
115.62 0.0% |
| Now | 115.60 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 7, 2026 |
114.21 -1.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 113.02 -2.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 33 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.