MAR
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MAR +4.30% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +4.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (RSI 76 today so far, above 70): After its 21 overbought readings in the past 5 years, MAR was higher a day later 11 times out of 21; half the outcomes fell between -0.8% and +0.5%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MAR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
376.24 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
381.78 +2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 387.82 · prior close 371.82 | |
| Bargain buy side |
367.45 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
362.12 -2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 366.04 | 2 in 10 days | 377.69 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 367.45 | 3 in 10 days | 376.24 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 368.77 | 4 in 10 days | 374.90 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 359.02 | 2 in 10 weeks | 385.07 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 362.12 | 3 in 10 weeks | 381.78 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 365.03 | 4 in 10 weeks | 378.74 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MAR's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among MAR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 425.00 +9.6% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 12, 2026 |
401.72 +3.6% |
| Now | 387.82 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 381.78 -1.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 380.80 -1.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
371.82 -4.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 362.12 -6.6% |
| 50-day average | 351.30 -9.4% |
| 200-day average | 350.83 -9.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 280.00 -27.8% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
256.90 -33.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 29 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.