MARA
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MARA −1.70% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Against the group: its crypto-linked peers +1.2% (+1.1 pts vs SPY).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MARA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
8.63 +4.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
9.16 +11.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 8.09 · prior close 8.23 | |
| Bargain buy side |
7.84 -4.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
7.39 -10.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 7.72 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 8.77 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 7.84 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 8.63 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 7.96 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 8.51 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 7.14 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 9.49 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 7.39 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 9.16 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 7.64 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 8.87 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MARA's daily swings (about 5.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | -10.1% | +6.0% | +12.4% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -7.8% | +32.0% | +29.9% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -11.7% | +11.8% | +18.1% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -7.1% | +11.8% | -19.4% | -27.9% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -7.3% | +1.6% | -5.2% | -9.6% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -11.2% | +14.3% | -2.4% | -8.2% |
| May 15, 2026 | -6.4% | +11.0% | +15.9% | -21.9% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | -8.2% | -5.2% | +32.7% | +75.5% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among MARA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 23, 2014 |
154.72 +1812.5% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2025 |
22.84 +182.3% |
| 200-day average | 10.96 +35.5% |
| 50-day average | 10.93 +35.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 9.16 +13.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
8.23 +1.7% |
| Now | 8.09 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 7.39 -8.6% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 5, 2026 |
6.73 -16.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 14 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.