MAT
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MAT +4.47% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +4.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Tue (date not confirmed): EPS $0.99 expected (4 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MAT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
17.26 +3.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
18.04 +8.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 17.40 · prior close 16.65 | |
| Bargain buy side |
16.06 -3.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
15.37 -7.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 15.88 | 2 in 10 days | 17.46 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 16.06 | 3 in 10 days | 17.26 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 16.24 | 4 in 10 days | 17.07 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 14.97 | 2 in 10 weeks | 18.52 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 15.37 | 3 in 10 weeks | 18.04 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 15.74 | 4 in 10 weeks | 17.61 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MAT's daily swings (about 3.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among MAT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 30, 2013 |
39.40 +126.5% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 8, 2026 |
22.16 +27.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 18.04 +3.7% |
| Now | 17.40 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
16.65 -4.3% |
| 200-day average | 15.73 -9.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 15.37 -11.7% |
| 50-day average | 14.65 -15.8% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 30, 2026 |
12.66 -27.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 50 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.