MC
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
59.84 +2.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
61.43 +4.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Last close | 58.59 | |
| Bargain buy side |
57.36 -2.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
55.88 -4.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 56.97 | 2 in 10 days | 60.26 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 57.36 | 3 in 10 days | 59.84 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 57.73 | 4 in 10 days | 59.46 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 55.03 | 2 in 10 weeks | 62.38 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 55.88 | 3 in 10 weeks | 61.43 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 56.69 | 4 in 10 weeks | 60.56 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MC's daily swings (about 2.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
Big drop and big gain: among MC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 6, 2025 |
75.71 +29.2% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 15, 2026 |
75.47 +28.8% |
| 200-day average | 63.22 +7.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 61.43 +4.8% |
| 50-day average | 60.24 +2.8% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
58.59 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 55.88 -4.6% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 12, 2026 |
50.37 -14.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 13 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.