MCHP

Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• MCHP +3.59% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, crossed below 200-day avg (Sep 30): After its 12 crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, MCHP typically gained 2.0% over the next day (median) and was higher 83% of the time; half the outcomes fell between +0.8% and +2.2%. An ordinary day: +0.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after crosses below the 200-day average, that ranks #2 of 497.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.