MCK
Moving with its group (XLV +2.7%)
- MCK +2.04% on the last session vs SPY +0.03%: +2.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.7% (+2.7 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.0% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.9%): After its 61 big gains in the past 5 years, MCK was higher a day later 37 times out of 61; half the outcomes fell between -0.6% and +1.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Leerink Partners maintained Outperform, raised target $1,030 → $1,070.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MCK only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
992.91 +1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
1,013.49 +3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 996.49 · prior close 976.57 | |
| Bargain buy side |
960.50 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
940.99 -3.6% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 955.33 | 2 in 10 days | 998.28 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 960.50 | 3 in 10 days | 992.91 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 965.33 | 4 in 10 days | 987.94 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 929.72 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 1,025.78 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 940.99 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 1,013.49 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 951.62 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 1,002.17 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MCK's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among MCK's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 1,070.00 +7.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 1,013.49 +1.7% |
| Now | 996.49 |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
996.49 0.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 980.67 -1.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
976.57 -2.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 940.99 -5.6% |
| 50-day average | 893.38 -10.3% |
| 200-day average | 851.68 -14.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 845.00 -15.2% |
| 52-week closing low May 11, 2026 |
723.60 -27.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 32 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.