MDLZ
Moving with its group (XLP +1.2%)
- MDLZ +1.84% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer staples ETF (XLP) +1.2% (+1.2 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+1.8% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.7%): After its 70 big gains in the past 5 years, MDLZ was higher a week later 39 times out of 70; half the outcomes fell between -1.4% and +1.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Overweight, lowered target $70.00 → $65.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MDLZ only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
63.35 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
64.33 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 63.72 · prior close 62.57 | |
| Bargain buy side |
61.80 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
60.86 -2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 61.55 | 2 in 10 days | 63.61 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 61.80 | 3 in 10 days | 63.35 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 62.03 | 4 in 10 days | 63.11 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 60.31 | 2 in 10 weeks | 64.91 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 60.86 | 3 in 10 weeks | 64.33 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 61.37 | 4 in 10 weeks | 63.79 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MDLZ's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among MDLZ's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 77.00 +20.8% |
| All-time closing high May 11, 2023 |
70.84 +11.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 69.00 +8.3% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 29, 2026 |
64.42 +1.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 64.33 +1.0% |
| Now | 63.72 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
62.57 -1.8% |
| 50-day average | 61.26 -3.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 60.86 -4.5% |
| 200-day average | 58.94 -7.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 55.00 -13.7% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 7, 2026 |
50.20 -21.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 25 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.