MDT

Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• MDT −0.07% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, crossed below 200-day avg (Sep 29): After its 11 crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, MDT typically lost 1.0% over the next week (median) and was higher only 36% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.9% and +0.3%. An ordinary week: +0.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after crosses below the 200-day average, that ranks #460 of 497.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.