MELI
Moving with its e-commerce peers
- MELI +1.47% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- E-commerce basket +2.7% (+2.6 pts vs SPY; ETSY +8.2%, EBAY +6.2%, CPNG +2.2%, SE +1.4%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MELI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
1,883.58 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
1,940.03 +5.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 1,866.07 · prior close 1,839.11 | |
| Bargain buy side |
1,795.69 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
1,743.44 -5.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 1,781.81 | 2 in 10 days | 1,898.25 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 1,795.69 | 3 in 10 days | 1,883.58 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 1,808.73 | 4 in 10 days | 1,870.00 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 1,713.45 | 2 in 10 weeks | 1,973.99 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 1,743.44 | 3 in 10 weeks | 1,940.03 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 1,771.87 | 4 in 10 weeks | 1,908.90 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MELI's daily swings (about 2.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among MELI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 30, 2025 |
2,613.63 +40.1% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 30, 2025 |
2,360.76 +26.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 1,940.03 +4.0% |
| Now | 1,866.07 |
| 50-day average | 1,860.08 -0.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
1,839.11 -1.4% |
| 200-day average | 1,832.57 -1.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 1,743.44 -6.6% |
| 52-week closing low May 15, 2026 |
1,546.81 -17.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 19 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.