MFIC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MFIC +1.62% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: +1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MFIC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
8.42 +1.0% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
8.52 +2.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 8.48 · prior close 8.34 | |
| Bargain buy side |
8.26 -1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
8.16 -2.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 8.23 | 2 in 10 days | 8.45 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 8.26 | 3 in 10 days | 8.42 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 8.28 | 4 in 10 days | 8.40 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 8.10 | 2 in 10 weeks | 8.58 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 8.16 | 3 in 10 weeks | 8.52 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 8.22 | 4 in 10 weeks | 8.47 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MFIC's daily swings (about 1.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | -1.4% | -2.9% | — | — |
| Apr 4, 2025 | -7.9% | -3.8% | +3.7% | +14.5% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | -6.5% | -3.6% | +1.9% | +16.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among MFIC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 7, 2024 |
11.93 +40.7% |
| 52-week closing high May 5, 2026 |
11.49 +35.5% |
| 200-day average | 9.86 +16.3% |
| 50-day average | 9.07 +7.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 8.52 +0.6% |
| Now | 8.48 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
8.34 -1.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
8.34 -1.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 8.16 -3.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 22 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.