MGM
Moving with its group (XLY +1.4%)
- MGM +1.04% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) +1.4% (+1.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 9): After its 59 big drops in the past 5 years, MGM was higher a day later 35 times out of 59; half the outcomes fell between -1.2% and +1.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 3 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Equal-Weight, lowered target $48.00 → $37.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MGM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
29.64 +2.3% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
30.49 +5.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 29.26 · prior close 28.96 | |
| Bargain buy side |
28.30 -2.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
27.50 -5.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 28.09 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 29.86 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 28.30 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 29.64 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 28.50 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 29.43 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 27.05 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 31.01 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 27.50 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 30.49 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 27.94 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 30.02 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MGM's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | -1.9% | -1.5% | — | — |
| Apr 7, 2025 | -2.1% | +12.6% | +20.7% | +43.3% |
| Mar 6, 2025 | -3.6% | -4.7% | -15.1% | -1.1% |
| Dec 18, 2024 | -4.4% | +3.2% | -2.9% | -4.1% |
| Aug 5, 2024 | -4.0% | +9.4% | +7.5% | +6.9% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | -9.9% | -3.4% | -0.7% | +18.3% |
| May 9, 2022 | -8.3% | -0.2% | +0.7% | -3.5% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among MGM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 9, 2007 |
94.21 +222.0% |
| Highest analyst target | 57.00 +94.8% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 1, 2026 |
50.69 +73.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 48.12 +64.5% |
| 200-day average | 39.42 +34.7% |
| 50-day average | 38.15 +30.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 37.00 +26.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 30.49 +4.2% |
| Now | 29.26 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
28.96 -1.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
28.96 -1.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 27.50 -6.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 38 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.