MGNI
Moving with the market
- MGNI +0.57% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +0.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MGNI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
24.59 +3.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
25.51 +6.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 24.00 · prior close 23.87 | |
| Bargain buy side |
23.17 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
22.34 -6.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 22.95 | 2 in 10 days | 24.83 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 23.17 | 3 in 10 days | 24.59 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 23.38 | 4 in 10 days | 24.37 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 21.86 | 2 in 10 weeks | 26.06 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 22.34 | 3 in 10 weeks | 25.51 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 22.79 | 4 in 10 weeks | 25.00 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MGNI's daily swings (about 3.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | -4.3% | +7.8% | +27.6% | — |
| Jul 10, 2026 | -4.1% | -6.6% | +19.0% | +25.1% |
| Jun 25, 2026 | -5.3% | +17.7% | +10.2% | +39.0% |
| May 11, 2026 | -5.4% | +0.1% | +17.2% | +81.8% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | -6.6% | -0.8% | -0.2% | +39.9% |
| Mar 10, 2026 | -3.9% | -5.1% | -9.1% | +21.6% |
| Feb 23, 2026 | -7.4% | +19.8% | +6.3% | +16.6% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | -5.1% | +9.2% | +8.8% | +10.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among MGNI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 11, 2021 |
61.80 +157.4% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 29, 2026 |
25.67 +6.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 25.51 +6.3% |
| 50-day average | 24.32 +1.3% |
| Now | 24.00 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
23.87 -0.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 22.34 -6.9% |
| 200-day average | 17.25 -28.1% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 12, 2026 |
11.20 -53.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 13 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.