MGRC
Moving with the market
- MGRC −0.24% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: −0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MGRC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
113.45 +1.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
115.32 +3.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 111.71 · prior close 111.97 | |
| Bargain buy side |
110.50 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
108.72 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 110.03 | 2 in 10 days | 113.94 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 110.50 | 3 in 10 days | 113.45 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 110.95 | 4 in 10 days | 113.00 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 107.68 | 2 in 10 weeks | 116.43 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 108.72 | 3 in 10 weeks | 115.32 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 109.69 | 4 in 10 weeks | 114.29 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MGRC's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -3.2% | -2.0% | — | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -2.5% | +3.4% | -2.8% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -2.3% | +2.0% | +7.0% | +3.1% |
| May 29, 2026 | -2.1% | -0.1% | +11.0% | +3.4% |
| May 15, 2026 | -3.3% | -1.5% | +2.1% | +8.8% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | -6.9% | +3.4% | -2.7% | +4.6% |
| Apr 20, 2026 | -2.6% | +3.7% | -3.5% | +2.9% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | -4.0% | +6.1% | +4.1% | +8.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among MGRC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 20, 2025 |
125.70 +12.5% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 25, 2026 |
122.81 +9.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 115.32 +3.2% |
| 50-day average | 114.53 +2.5% |
| 200-day average | 112.99 +1.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
111.97 +0.2% |
| Now | 111.71 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 108.72 -2.7% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 18, 2025 |
94.39 -15.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 42 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.