MKC
Moving with the market
- MKC +1.20% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +0.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 Oct 1 before the open: EPS $0.86 vs $0.76 expected (beat, +$0.10, +13.8%); revenue $2.0B. The stock moved -4.9% on Thu's session (-5.0 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, earnings beat (Oct 1): After its 15 earnings beats in the past 5 years, MKC typically gained 0.3% over the next day (median) and was higher 73% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.8% and +0.6%. An ordinary day: +0.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after earnings beats, that ranks #66 of 497.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#313 H | 0.0%#436 H | -0.1%#423 H | -1.4%#454 M |
| Big drop (-2.1% or worse) | 74 | +0.1%#284 H | +0.1%#461 H | +0.7%#392 H | -2.2%#490 M |
| Big gain (+1.8% or better) | 70 | +0.2%#170 H | 0.0%#394 H | +0.4%#428 H | -1.0%#477 M |
| Earnings beat Oct 1 | 15 | +0.3%#66 M | +0.7%#210 M | +2.6%#135 M | +1.0%#309 M |
| Earnings miss | 4 | +0.1%#140 L | +1.1%#95 L | +2.3%#97 L | -9.8%#249 L |
| 52-week high | 3 | +0.7%#185 L | +2.0%#59 L | -2.9%#427 L | -12.8%#440 L |
| 52-week low Oct 1 | 9 | 0.0%#173 M | -1.0%#215 M | -0.1%#224 M | -0.3%#183 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 11 | -1.0%#471 M | -1.4%#425 M | -5.2%#415 M | -7.5%#424 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 10 | -0.5%#435 M | -1.5%#415 M | -2.8%#363 M | -2.8%#396 M |
| RSI oversold | 16 | +0.1%#283 M | -0.1%#362 M | -1.2%#455 M | +3.1%#332 M |
| RSI overbought | 14 | -0.2%#402 M | +0.2%#217 M | +1.1%#177 M | -1.8%#364 M |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is MKC's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big drop (-2.1% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 74 | +0.09% (-0.4 to +0.3) | High | #284 of 500 | 53% | -0.19% |
-6%
+5%
|
|
| 1 week | 74 | +0.12% (-0.6 to +0.3) | High | #461 of 500 | 53% | -1.18% |
-9%
+8%
|
|
| 1 month | 72 ≈43 indep. | +0.71% (-1.5 to +1.7) | High | #392 of 500 | 51% | -2.29% |
-29%
+15%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 69 ≈15 indep. | -2.22% (-4.0 to +1.0) | Medium | #490 of 499 | 43% | -9.35% |
-32%
+24%
|
Range of outcomes: all of MKC's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 18 | +0.3%M vs +0.1% | -0.1%M vs -0.1% | -1.3%M vs -1.0% | -5.1%M vs -2.5% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 56 | -0.2%H vs 0.0% | +0.1%H vs 0.0% | +1.1%H vs -0.3% | -1.4%M vs +0.7% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 26 | +0.3%H vs 0.0% | -0.5%H vs 0.0% | -1.3%H vs -1.1% | -3.1%M vs -3.7% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 48 | -0.1%H vs 0.0% | +0.2%H vs -0.1% | +1.1%H vs 0.0% | -0.7%M vs +0.2% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 24 | +0.2%H vs +0.1% | -0.8%H vs +0.2% | 0.0%H vs -0.1% | -3.1%M vs -1.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 50 | +0.1%H vs -0.1% | +0.2%H vs -0.1% | +0.8%H vs -0.4% | -2.0%M vs -1.9% |
The same event split by where MKC stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Sep 24 @ $47.82 | -2.6% on the day (line -2.0%) | +0.3% | -7.7% | … | … |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Sep 3 @ $52.58 | -2.3% on the day (line -2.0%) | -1.0% | -2.4% | … | … |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aug 20 @ $55.22 | -2.2% on the day (line -2.0%) | +0.3% | -1.2% | -11.5% | … |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Jul 23 @ $50.19 | -3.5% on the day (line -2.0%) | -0.5% | +1.5% | +10.4% | … |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Jul 15 @ $50.92 | -3.6% on the day (line -1.9%) | +3.9% | +2.2% | +6.9% | … |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Jun 30 @ $49.97 | -3.1% on the day (line -1.9%) | +4.9% | +3.2% | +2.0% | -3.1% |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Jun 15 @ $47.44 | -2.2% on the day (line -1.9%) | -1.4% | -1.0% | +11.5% | +5.1% |
| May 26, 2026 | May 26 @ $46.40 | -2.0% on the day (line -1.9%) | +1.6% | -1.4% | +3.3% | +17.4% |
| May 13, 2026 | May 13 @ $45.19 | -2.6% on the day (line -1.9%) | +2.0% | +2.4% | +7.3% | +20.5% |
| May 4, 2026 | May 4 @ $47.59 | -4.4% on the day (line -1.8%) | +1.0% | -2.0% | -3.6% | +9.4% |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Apr 20 @ $52.38 | -1.9% on the day (line -1.8%) | -1.6% | -4.6% | -10.6% | 0.0% |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Mar 31 @ $49.55 | -6.1% on the day (line -1.8%) | -4.1% | +0.1% | +1.7% | +5.8% |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Mar 19 @ $53.09 | -1.8% on the day (line -1.7%) | -1.5% | -4.6% | -1.3% | -12.9% |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Mar 11 @ $58.87 | -5.5% on the day (line -1.7%) | -4.4% | -8.1% | -10.4% | -16.3% |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Mar 3 @ $66.47 | -3.2% on the day (line -1.6%) | -2.9% | -6.3% | -28.5% | -31.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.