MKC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MKC +2.97% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +2.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.0% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.8%): After its 69 big gains in the past 5 years, MKC was higher a month later 36 times out of 69; half the outcomes fell between -3.0% and +4.2%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MKC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
45.59 +1.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
46.58 +4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 46.13 · prior close 44.80 | |
| Bargain buy side |
44.03 -1.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
43.09 -3.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 43.78 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 45.85 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 44.03 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 45.59 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 44.26 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 45.35 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 42.55 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 47.17 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 43.09 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 46.58 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 43.60 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 46.03 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MKC's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among MKC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 21, 2022 |
93.19 +102.0% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 12, 2026 |
69.64 +51.0% |
| Highest analyst target | 65.00 +40.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 54.85 +18.9% |
| 200-day average | 53.37 +15.7% |
| 50-day average | 50.10 +8.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 47.00 +1.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 46.58 +1.0% |
| Now | 46.13 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
44.80 -2.9% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 1, 2026 |
43.68 -5.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 43.09 -6.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.