MLM
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MLM +4.45% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +4.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+4.4% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.0%): After its 56 big gains in the past 5 years, MLM was higher a month later 31 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -4.1% and +5.8%. History, not a forecast.
- 4 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 4 negative); latest: RBC Capital maintained Sector Perform, lowered target $620 → $530.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MLM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
477.17 +1.3% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
484.79 +2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 492.05 · prior close 471.10 | |
| Bargain buy side |
465.10 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
457.80 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 463.17 | 2 in 10 days | 479.16 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 465.10 | 3 in 10 days | 477.17 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 466.91 | 4 in 10 days | 475.33 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 453.56 | 2 in 10 weeks | 489.32 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 457.80 | 3 in 10 weeks | 484.79 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 461.78 | 4 in 10 weeks | 480.60 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MLM's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -2.0% | -1.7% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -2.5% | -0.4% | -5.1% | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | -2.8% | +4.5% | -1.2% | — |
| Apr 7, 2025 | -2.3% | +9.4% | +16.2% | +23.5% |
| Feb 21, 2025 | -3.2% | -1.4% | +0.3% | +15.5% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | -1.6% | -4.4% | -1.4% | +7.5% |
| May 9, 2022 | -3.8% | -2.8% | +1.4% | +6.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among MLM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 800.00 +62.6% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 10, 2026 |
705.09 +43.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 635.17 +29.1% |
| 200-day average | 581.12 +18.1% |
| 50-day average | 507.95 +3.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 496.00 +0.8% |
| Now | 492.05 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 484.79 -1.5% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
471.10 -4.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
471.10 -4.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 457.80 -7.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 33 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.