MMM

Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• MMM −0.69% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, big drop (Sep 30): After its 65 big drops in the past 5 years, MMM typically gained 1.4% over the next month (median) and was higher 62% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.8% and +7.5%. An ordinary month: +0.9%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #274 of 500.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.