MNST
Moving with its group (XLP +1.3%)
- MNST +2.16% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +2.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer staples ETF (XLP) +1.3% (+1.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.2% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.8%): After its 61 big gains in the past 5 years, MNST was higher a day later 38 times out of 61; half the outcomes fell between -0.8% and +0.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Overweight, lowered target $53.00 → $48.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MNST only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
44.83 +1.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
45.58 +3.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 45.17 · prior close 44.22 | |
| Bargain buy side |
43.62 -1.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
42.90 -3.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 43.43 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 45.02 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 43.62 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 44.83 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 43.80 | 4 in 10 days | 44.64 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 42.47 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 46.04 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 42.90 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 45.58 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 43.29 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 45.17 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MNST's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | +1.9% | +1.6% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | +1.8% | -0.5% | -2.0% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | +4.1% | +2.8% | -6.1% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | +2.0% | -1.9% | +2.2% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +2.4% | -6.4% | -6.3% | -11.5% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | +1.8% | +5.0% | +2.8% | -5.4% |
| Jun 9, 2026 | +1.9% | +3.1% | +8.0% | -5.0% |
| May 27, 2026 | +2.1% | -0.2% | +8.0% | +7.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among MNST's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 57.00 +26.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 50.02 +10.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 16, 2026 |
49.97 +10.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 45.58 +0.9% |
| Now | 45.17 |
| 50-day average | 44.75 -0.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
44.22 -2.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 42.90 -5.0% |
| 200-day average | 42.64 -5.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 35.00 -22.5% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 6, 2025 |
33.15 -26.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 41 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.