MO
Moving with its group (XLP +0.9%)
- MO +0.99% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer staples ETF (XLP) +0.9% (+0.9 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, 52-week high ($73.86 today so far, above its 52-week closing high of $73.74): After its 15 new 52-week highs in the past 5 years, MO was higher a week later 6 times out of 15; half the outcomes fell between -2.8% and +2.2%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
74.09 +1.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
75.30 +3.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 73.86 · prior close 73.13 | |
| Bargain buy side |
72.18 -1.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
71.02 -2.9% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 71.87 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 74.41 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 72.18 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 74.09 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 72.47 | 4 in 10 days | 73.80 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 70.35 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 76.02 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 71.02 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 75.30 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 71.65 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 74.64 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MO's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +2.9% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | +2.4% | -1.4% | +3.0% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | +1.9% | +4.4% | +8.6% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | +2.6% | -9.0% | -7.6% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +3.6% | -1.3% | -10.0% | +1.7% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +1.6% | -1.3% | -6.1% | -6.5% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +3.0% | +0.5% | +0.7% | -2.6% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | +2.3% | -0.3% | +2.4% | -3.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among MO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 82.00 +11.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 75.30 +2.0% |
| Now | 73.86 |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
73.86 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
73.13 -1.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 71.02 -3.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 70.00 -5.2% |
| 50-day average | 67.91 -8.1% |
| 200-day average | 66.14 -10.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 58.00 -21.5% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 7, 2026 |
52.19 -29.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 65 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.