MOD
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MOD −4.06% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: −4.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.8× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MOD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
164.57 +4.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
173.41 +9.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 151.35 · prior close 157.75 | |
| Bargain buy side |
151.21 -4.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
143.50 -9.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 149.15 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 166.85 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 151.21 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 164.57 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 153.16 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 162.48 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 139.16 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 178.83 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 143.50 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 173.41 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 147.68 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 168.51 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MOD's daily swings (about 4.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -5.0% | — | — | — |
| Sep 28, 2026 | -11.6% | +4.5% | — | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -7.4% | -6.3% | -7.9% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | -4.7% | -15.0% | -18.4% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -4.7% | -2.7% | -15.3% | -22.5% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -8.4% | -0.4% | -17.8% | -23.4% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -6.1% | -3.8% | -10.0% | -29.4% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -8.2% | -0.7% | -14.8% | -29.6% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among MOD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 2, 2026 |
306.89 +102.8% |
| 200-day average | 215.53 +42.4% |
| 50-day average | 187.53 +23.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 173.41 +14.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
157.75 +4.2% |
| Now | 151.35 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 143.50 -5.2% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 7, 2026 |
119.68 -20.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 44 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.