MOS
Analyst cuts weighing on the stock
- MOS −0.95% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −1.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, 52-week low (Oct 9): After its 12 new 52-week lows in the past 5 years, MOS was higher a month later 11 times out of 12; half the outcomes fell between +2.2% and +13.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: RBC Capital downgraded to Sector Perform, lowered target $27.00 → $25.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MOS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
19.48 +2.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
20.07 +5.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 18.83 · prior close 19.01 | |
| Bargain buy side |
18.55 -2.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
18.00 -5.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 18.41 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 19.63 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 18.55 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 19.48 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 18.69 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 19.34 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 17.69 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 20.43 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 18.00 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 20.07 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 18.30 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 19.75 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MOS's daily swings (about 2.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among MOS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 17, 2008 |
115.03 +510.9% |
| Highest analyst target | 35.00 +85.9% |
| 52-week closing high Mar 12, 2026 |
30.78 +63.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 26.66 +41.6% |
| 200-day average | 23.93 +27.1% |
| 50-day average | 22.93 +21.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 20.07 +6.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
19.01 +1.0% |
| Now | 18.83 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 9, 2026 |
18.74 -0.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 18.00 -4.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 17.00 -9.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 39 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.