MPT
Moving with the market
- MPT +0.33% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +0.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MPT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
3.13 +2.3% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
3.22 +5.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 3.07 · prior close 3.06 | |
| Bargain buy side |
2.99 -2.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
2.91 -5.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 2.97 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 3.15 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 2.99 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 3.13 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 3.01 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 3.11 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 2.86 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 3.28 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 2.91 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 3.22 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 2.95 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 3.17 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MPT's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | -2.6% | -5.3% | — | — |
| Aug 31, 2026 | -2.9% | +0.5% | -10.8% | — |
| Jan 5, 2024 | -29.0% | -3.4% | -9.0% | +15.2% |
| Oct 23, 2023 | -2.1% | +4.8% | -1.3% | -26.5% |
| Sep 20, 2023 | -3.8% | -13.1% | -19.9% | -10.0% |
| Aug 18, 2023 | -7.6% | +1.2% | -11.1% | -32.2% |
| May 16, 2023 | -1.8% | +8.8% | +29.7% | +5.1% |
| Mar 9, 2023 | -5.0% | -13.4% | -9.6% | +1.0% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among MPT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 14, 2022 |
15.88 +417.2% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 19, 2026 |
5.66 +84.5% |
| 200-day average | 4.52 +47.3% |
| 50-day average | 3.70 +20.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 3.22 +4.9% |
| Now | 3.07 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
3.06 -0.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
3.06 -0.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 2.91 -5.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.