MPWR
Moving with the market
- MPWR −0.18% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: −0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed below 200-day avg (Oct 14): After its 7 crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, MPWR was higher a day later 2 times out of 7; half the outcomes fell between -0.4% and -0.1%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MPWR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
1,284.70 +3.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
1,338.03 +7.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 1,240.82 · prior close 1,243.11 | |
| Bargain buy side |
1,202.87 -3.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
1,154.92 -7.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 1,190.08 | 2 in 10 days | 1,298.50 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 1,202.87 | 3 in 10 days | 1,284.70 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 1,214.91 | 4 in 10 days | 1,271.96 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 1,127.64 | 2 in 10 weeks | 1,370.40 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 1,154.92 | 3 in 10 weeks | 1,338.03 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 1,180.94 | 4 in 10 weeks | 1,308.55 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MPWR's daily swings (about 3.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -4.8% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -7.4% | +11.8% | +15.6% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -4.2% | -2.6% | +7.9% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | -4.4% | -3.8% | -16.1% | — |
| Aug 3, 2026 | -5.7% | +2.7% | -8.8% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -4.5% | +6.9% | -3.7% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -5.4% | +8.1% | +5.7% | +16.4% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -7.4% | -2.8% | -1.7% | -2.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among MPWR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 2,100.00 +69.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 1,839.80 +48.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 3, 2026 |
1,684.83 +35.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 1,575.00 +26.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 1,338.03 +7.8% |
| 50-day average | 1,308.84 +5.5% |
| 200-day average | 1,298.66 +4.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
1,243.11 +0.2% |
| Now | 1,240.82 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 1,154.92 -6.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 18, 2025 |
851.25 -31.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 22 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.