MRK
Moving with the market
- MRK −0.13% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: −0.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 13): After its 73 big drops in the past 5 years, MRK was higher a week later 42 times out of 73; half the outcomes fell between -1.4% and +2.3%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 1 negative); latest: Cantor Fitzgerald maintained Neutral, raised target $120 → $145.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MRK only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
150.18 +1.9% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
153.74 +4.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 147.18 · prior close 147.37 | |
| Bargain buy side |
144.61 -1.9% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
141.27 -4.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 143.72 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 151.11 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 144.61 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 150.18 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 145.44 | 4 in 10 days | 149.33 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 139.34 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 155.86 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 141.27 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 153.74 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 143.09 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 151.78 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MRK's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | +2.3% | — | — | — |
| Aug 21, 2026 | +2.4% | -2.8% | -0.5% | — |
| Aug 12, 2026 | +1.9% | +14.5% | +8.3% | — |
| Jul 23, 2026 | +2.4% | -0.5% | +16.9% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | +2.3% | +3.1% | +9.7% | +15.5% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +3.3% | -4.6% | -1.4% | +11.7% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +3.6% | +7.4% | +9.1% | +26.9% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | +4.8% | +0.4% | +7.9% | +27.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among MRK's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 186.00 +26.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 158.08 +7.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 25, 2026 |
155.53 +5.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 153.74 +4.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
147.37 +0.1% |
| Now | 147.18 |
| 50-day average | 144.36 -1.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 141.27 -4.0% |
| 200-day average | 123.37 -16.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 105.00 -28.7% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 3, 2025 |
80.14 -45.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 65 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.