MRNA
Up on cancer vaccine developments
- MRNA +5.17% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +5.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: 247wallst.com reports Moderna surging on cancer vaccine excitement and analyst discussion. (247wallst.com)
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (RSI 72 today so far, above 70): After its 14 overbought readings in the past 5 years, MRNA was higher a day later 8 times out of 14; half the outcomes fell between -3.0% and +2.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 15 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 76% positive over the week.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Equal-Weight, raised target $89.00 → $95.00.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MRNA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
248.04 +9.6% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% |
277.83 +22.8% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 238.01 · prior close 226.30 | |
| Bargain buy side |
206.46 -8.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
184.33 -18.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 200.40 | 2 in 10 days | 255.55 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 206.46 | 3 in 10 days | 248.04 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 212.28 | 4 in 10 days | 241.25 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 172.44 | 2 in 10 weeks | 296.97 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 184.33 | 3 in 10 weeks | 277.83 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 196.14 | 4 in 10 weeks | 261.10 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MRNA's daily swings (about 9.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | +5.6% | +11.4% | — | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | +177.0% | -14.2% | -11.7% | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | +11.6% | -3.3% | -3.7% | +155.8% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | +3.6% | -2.0% | -10.0% | -11.9% |
| Jan 21, 2026 | +15.8% | -9.1% | +0.1% | +11.6% |
| May 20, 2024 | +6.1% | +8.6% | -4.7% | -38.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among MRNA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Aug 9, 2021 |
484.47 +103.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 277.83 +16.7% |
| Now | 238.01 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
238.01 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
226.30 -4.9% |
| Highest analyst target | 200.00 -16.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 184.33 -22.6% |
| 50-day average | 151.68 -36.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 122.67 -48.5% |
| 200-day average | 76.47 -67.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 45.00 -81.1% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
22.36 -90.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 8 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.