MRSH
Rallying on an earnings beat
- MRSH +5.82% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +5.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 today before the open: EPS $2.03 vs $1.97 expected (beat, +$0.06, +3.2%); revenue $6.9B (+3.3% beat).
- Aftermath, earnings beat (3Q2026 beat +3%; today is the reaction session): After its 20 earnings beats in the past 5 years, MRSH closed higher on the reaction session 11 times out of 20; half the outcomes fell between -1.5% and +2.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 2 negative); latest: Mizuho maintained Neutral, lowered target $201 → $190.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MRSH only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
180.31 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
182.70 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 188.78 · prior close 178.40 | |
| Bargain buy side |
176.51 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
174.20 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 175.90 | 2 in 10 days | 180.93 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 176.51 | 3 in 10 days | 180.31 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 177.08 | 4 in 10 days | 179.73 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 172.86 | 2 in 10 weeks | 184.12 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 174.20 | 3 in 10 weeks | 182.70 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 175.46 | 4 in 10 weeks | 181.39 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MRSH's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among MRSH's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 238.00 +26.1% |
| All-time closing high Apr 3, 2025 |
236.95 +25.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 203.90 +8.0% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2025 |
202.59 +7.3% |
| Now | 188.78 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 182.70 -3.2% |
| 50-day average | 180.59 -4.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 179.00 -5.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
178.40 -5.5% |
| 200-day average | 174.66 -7.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 174.20 -7.7% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 3, 2026 |
155.53 -17.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.