MRVL
Moving with its ai chips & networking peers
- MRVL −2.83% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- AI chips & networking basket -3.1% (-3.2 pts vs SPY; ANET -5.4%, AMD -3.9%, ALAB -3.3%, CRDO -2.2%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 64 big drops in the past 5 years, MRVL was higher a day later 41 times out of 64; half the outcomes fell between -2.3% and +3.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 15 analyst actions in the past 10 days (15 positive, 0 negative); latest: Susquehanna maintained Positive, raised target $265 → $340.
- 3 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.7× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MRVL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
255.37 +4.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
268.41 +9.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 238.33 · prior close 245.28 | |
| Bargain buy side |
235.59 -3.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
224.14 -8.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 232.53 | 2 in 10 days | 258.73 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 235.59 | 3 in 10 days | 255.37 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 238.48 | 4 in 10 days | 252.27 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 217.68 | 2 in 10 weeks | 276.38 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 224.14 | 3 in 10 weeks | 268.41 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 230.34 | 4 in 10 weeks | 261.19 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MRVL's daily swings (about 4.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | -7.3% | +17.6% | +22.8% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -10.3% | +3.2% | +21.5% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -7.8% | +11.3% | +11.5% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -4.6% | +12.4% | +12.7% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -7.2% | -3.4% | +18.1% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | -7.3% | +2.3% | +7.7% | +30.3% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -7.4% | -3.6% | -8.5% | +17.6% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | -5.2% | -6.6% | -34.6% | -1.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among MRVL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 450.00 +88.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 337.99 +41.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 4, 2026 |
316.28 +32.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 268.41 +12.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
245.28 +2.9% |
| 50-day average | 240.59 +0.9% |
| Now | 238.33 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 224.14 -6.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 210.00 -11.9% |
| 200-day average | 175.06 -26.5% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 4, 2026 |
73.66 -69.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 26 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.