MRX
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MRX +3.34% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +3.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MRX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
71.16 +2.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
73.41 +5.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 71.70 · prior close 69.38 | |
| Bargain buy side |
67.65 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
65.57 -5.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 67.10 | 2 in 10 days | 71.74 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 67.65 | 3 in 10 days | 71.16 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 68.17 | 4 in 10 days | 70.61 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 64.38 | 2 in 10 weeks | 74.77 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 65.57 | 3 in 10 weeks | 73.41 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 66.70 | 4 in 10 weeks | 72.17 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MRX's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | -3.3% | +3.0% | — | — |
| Sep 22, 2026 | -4.0% | -0.7% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -3.0% | +6.9% | +1.6% | — |
| Aug 24, 2026 | -3.1% | +2.8% | +1.5% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -2.9% | +16.1% | +25.8% | — |
| Jul 10, 2026 | -6.4% | -8.5% | -8.0% | +8.4% |
| Jun 29, 2026 | -8.2% | +14.0% | +7.1% | +21.2% |
| May 28, 2026 | -3.2% | +5.2% | +13.8% | +38.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among MRX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Sep 4, 2026 |
78.27 +9.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 73.41 +2.4% |
| Now | 71.70 |
| 50-day average | 71.41 -0.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
69.38 -3.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 65.57 -8.6% |
| 200-day average | 55.27 -22.9% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
29.51 -58.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 2 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.