MS
Moving with the market
- MS +1.22% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +0.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed below 200-day avg (Sep 30): After its 9 crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, MS typically lost 2.2% over the next week (median) and was higher only 44% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -3.5% and +2.7%. An ordinary week: +0.4%. Among S&P 500 stocks after crosses below the 200-day average, that ranks #362 of 497.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#81 H | +0.4%#187 H | +1.4%#142 H | +5.5%#78 M |
| Big drop Sep 30 (-1.9% or worse) | 58 | 0.0%#361 H | +0.7%#190 H | +3.3%#85 H | +12.8%#13 M |
| Big gain (+2.2% or better) | 65 | +0.3%#73 H | +1.0%#57 H | +3.7%#40 H | +7.9%#31 M |
| Earnings beat | 17 | +0.7%#62 M | -1.0%#491 M | +2.1%#167 M | +5.6%#107 M |
| Earnings miss | 3 | +2.4%#63 L | +5.2%#41 L | +20.4%#50 L | +4.7%#110 L |
| 52-week high | 16 | -0.6%#393 M | +0.9%#111 M | +2.3%#55 M | +5.5%#86 M |
| 52-week low | 1 | +0.3%– | -1.2%– | +11.4%– | +19.0%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 11 | -0.2%#310 M | +1.7%#120 M | -0.1%#303 M | +3.5%#244 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg Sep 30 | 10 | -0.1%#306 M | -2.2%#362 M | -0.1%#286 M | +4.5%#209 L |
| RSI oversold Sep 28 | 8 | +0.4%#81 M | +2.7%#151 L | +2.3%#239 L | +19.0%#83 L |
| RSI overbought | 21 | +0.2%#171 H | +0.8%#149 H | +2.0%#53 M | +4.8%#114 M |
| Reddit spike | 3 | +0.5%#35 L | -2.8%#73 L | -2.8%#87 L | +3.3%#44 L |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is MS's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big drop (-1.9% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 58 | +0.04% (-0.1 to +0.3) | High | #361 of 500 | 55% | +0.11% |
-8%
+4%
|
|
| 1 week | 57 | +0.71% (0.0 to +2.0) | High | #190 of 500 | 58% | +0.92% |
-14%
+12%
|
|
| 1 month | 55 ≈37 indep. | +3.32% (+0.9 to +5.7) | High | #85 of 500 | 67% | +1.06% |
-17%
+24%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 51 ≈15 indep. | +12.80% (+8.0 to +15.2) | Medium | #13 of 499 | 80% | +4.81% |
-12%
+35%
|
Range of outcomes: all of MS's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 43 | +0.1%H vs +0.1% | +0.3%H vs +0.2% | +2.5%H vs +1.7% | +12.8%M vs +7.5% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 15 | 0.0%M vs +0.3% | +1.4%M vs +2.0% | +7.1%M vs +4.6% | +13.7%M vs +7.2% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 26 | +0.2%H vs +0.1% | +0.7%H vs +0.3% | +1.7%H vs +1.2% | +8.0%M vs +5.1% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 32 | 0.0%H vs +0.1% | +0.1%H vs +0.7% | +5.0%H vs +2.3% | +14.6%M vs +7.8% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 21 | +0.3%H vs +0.1% | +0.3%H vs +0.5% | +3.3%M vs +1.6% | +15.1%M vs +6.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 37 | 0.0%H vs +0.1% | +0.8%H vs +0.2% | +3.0%H vs +1.5% | +8.7%M vs +4.8% |
The same event split by where MS stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Sep 30 @ $188.08 | -2.4% on the day (line -1.9%) | 0.0% | … | … | … |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 22 @ $200.18 | -2.9% on the day (line -1.9%) | -0.9% | -3.7% | … | … |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 14 @ $206.58 | -3.6% on the day (line -1.8%) | -0.1% | -0.2% | … | … |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aug 20 @ $207.45 | -3.2% on the day (line -1.8%) | +3.3% | +3.6% | -0.6% | … |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Aug 6 @ $213.75 | -2.1% on the day (line -1.9%) | +1.2% | +2.2% | +1.9% | … |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Jul 29 @ $202.02 | -4.0% on the day (line -1.8%) | +3.4% | +8.0% | +6.4% | … |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Jul 16 @ $217.17 | -4.5% on the day (line -1.8%) | -1.3% | -1.5% | +0.1% | … |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Jun 24 @ $218.66 | -2.7% on the day (line -1.8%) | +0.5% | -3.6% | -2.4% | -9.3% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Jun 3 @ $208.99 | -2.2% on the day (line -1.7%) | +3.9% | -1.7% | +5.7% | +1.4% |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Apr 16 @ $185.30 | -2.2% on the day (line -1.8%) | +0.8% | +0.7% | +3.3% | +15.7% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Mar 27 @ $156.68 | -3.0% on the day (line -1.8%) | 0.0% | +5.2% | +20.2% | +34.4% |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Mar 5 @ $160.80 | -3.0% on the day (line -1.7%) | -1.4% | -5.0% | +2.5% | +35.0% |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Feb 23 @ $165.00 | -4.9% on the day (line -1.6%) | +1.2% | +0.1% | -0.6% | +21.2% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Feb 5 @ $173.94 | -2.4% on the day (line -1.6%) | +2.3% | -4.4% | -8.8% | +8.7% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Jan 23 @ $176.10 | -2.2% on the day (line -1.6%) | +1.6% | +2.7% | -5.2% | +5.6% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.