MS
Analyst cuts weighing on the stock
- MS −1.05% on the last session vs SPY −0.04%: −1.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 Oct 14 before the open: EPS $3.03 vs $2.92 expected (beat, +$0.11, +3.9%); revenue $20.3B (+1.1% beat). The stock moved -2.8% on Wed's session (-1.7 pts vs SPY).
- Guidance: MS reported Q3 2026 results but provided no forward guidance for upcoming periods. (release)
- Not a group move: its big banks peers +0.3% (+0.3 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 55 big drops in the past 5 years, MS was higher a month later 36 times out of 55; half the outcomes fell between -2.4% and +7.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: BMO Capital maintained Outperform, lowered target $250 → $215.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
184.16 +1.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
187.48 +3.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 179.61 · prior close 181.51 | |
| Bargain buy side |
178.90 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
175.73 -3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 178.06 | 2 in 10 days | 185.02 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 178.90 | 3 in 10 days | 184.16 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 179.69 | 4 in 10 days | 183.35 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 173.89 | 2 in 10 weeks | 189.46 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 175.73 | 3 in 10 weeks | 187.48 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 177.46 | 4 in 10 weeks | 185.65 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MS's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | -2.4% | +0.9% | — | — |
| Sep 22, 2026 | -2.9% | -3.7% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -3.6% | -0.2% | -9.7% | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -3.2% | +3.6% | -0.6% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -2.1% | +2.2% | +1.9% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -4.0% | +8.0% | +6.4% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -4.5% | -1.5% | +0.1% | -16.4% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | -2.7% | -3.6% | -2.4% | -9.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among MS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 262.00 +45.9% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 15, 2026 |
227.30 +26.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 222.77 +24.0% |
| 50-day average | 204.95 +14.1% |
| 200-day average | 193.04 +7.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 187.48 +4.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 186.00 +3.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
181.51 +1.1% |
| Now | 179.61 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 175.73 -2.2% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
151.90 -15.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 34 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.