MSCI
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MSCI +2.27% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Tue before the open: EPS $5.02 expected (14 analysts); it moved ±6.0% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.3% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.8%): After its 56 big gains in the past 5 years, MSCI was higher a week later 33 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -1.5% and +1.8%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MSCI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
567.88 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
577.11 +3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 573.26 · prior close 560.52 | |
| Bargain buy side |
553.26 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
544.41 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 550.92 | 2 in 10 days | 570.29 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 553.26 | 3 in 10 days | 567.88 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 555.45 | 4 in 10 days | 565.64 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 539.28 | 2 in 10 weeks | 582.60 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 544.41 | 3 in 10 weeks | 577.11 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 549.24 | 4 in 10 weeks | 572.04 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MSCI's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among MSCI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 755.00 +31.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 680.76 +18.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 1, 2026 |
641.54 +11.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 577.11 +0.7% |
| Now | 573.26 |
| Lowest analyst target | 570.00 -0.6% |
| 200-day average | 569.38 -0.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
560.52 -2.2% |
| 50-day average | 558.36 -2.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 544.41 -5.0% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 11, 2026 |
506.19 -11.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 19 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.