MSFT
Moving with the market
- MSFT −0.02% on the last session vs SPY +0.18%: −0.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- 47 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 73% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.6× its recent daily average.
- 5 analyst actions in the past 10 days (5 positive, 0 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Overweight, raised target $700 → $725.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Wed): Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Final GDP q/q 2.2% vs 1.5% expected (stronger); S&P futures +0.18%, 10-year yield +0bp in the 30 minutes after.
What Reddit is saying
MU latest quarterly net profit was more than either GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, TSM, Saudi Aramco, or AMZN.AI failures might hit their stock but they will be around for the long haulMaybe MSFT and maybe GOOG coz I have a huge position there but I'm still looking to see where their capex is going lol PLTR is a solid cash printing machine thoOf the $42b loss, $34b is attributed to warrants issued at lower valuation that now have substantially higher valuation..For example, suppose I granted warrants at $3.4b at the time, and valuation has since surged by 10x..But it's a **one time** non-cash charge - it's not as if Anthropic needs to find $34b of cash to reverse this loss - it's not debt..You could almost view it as opposite effect of AMZN GOOGL and MSFT reporting huge sums of paper gains from their investments in Anthropic and OpenAI, even though they didn't sell yet..It's just a matter of keeping proper accounting records.
Top comments, summarized
- MSFT, META, AMZN, NVIDIA are all trading within 5-10% of ATH.
- Goog is not, they are down get butchered because their AI model is top of the line and owning a fair share of Antropic.
- Believe me Google has a fair chance of hitting 400 this year.
- I don't see MSFT, AMZN OR META outpacing ATM.
- The only reason GOOG gets dumped today is because of Algo's, just like MSFT
- People are mocking OP while simultaneously thinking we are nowhere near AGI or AI being able to significantly augment the majority of useful work.
- OP is at least right that if we don't see large scale adoption of enterprise AI, MSFT and google are going to perform poorly, and NVDA very likely will as well.
- It's maddening to see people in this sub mock AI as useless while simultaneously saying to buy MSFT and Google.
- They prioritized cost-efficient compute which aligns with how AI is getting used by their customers.
- Most critically they retained their search dominance through the AI transition, ensuring a long term future at a time where there was a high chance of being replaced.
- It's still TBD if OpenAI or Anthropic will even exist in 5 years time.
- They secured their position with office and haven't lost ground in cloud, and also setup desktop office AI integration to be model-agnostic, and survived AI without significant over investment.
- They won't go under from a bubble pop, and they're positioned to do well if AI suddenly leapfrogs forward.
- ALGOS GOING FOR MSFT pump and dump, GOOG dump and pump.
- "companies spending heavily because they don't want to be left behind?"
- The issue becomes if you're MSFT and you've now built a fleet of data centers, those data centers are now going to cost money for the foreseeable future whether AI is ultimately amazing for business or not.
- Every data center is basically creating future orders for all the products in it - updated chips, new equipment, replacements, services, etc.
- A lot of Reddit has spent so much of the last couple of years focusing on "when bubble?"
- As long as these hyperscalers (AMZN, META, GOOG, and MSFT) are raking in profits from their core business, then NVDA holds the top spot.
- Back then, there were a lot of hopes and dreams that these companies could turn a profit.
- Right now, there's no hope because profits are reported.
- So, for the markets to drop, you'll need to hear META, MSFT, AMZN, and GOOG tell its investors that capex is decreasing.
- Looks like Zuck is just getting started on his version of AI.
- Maybe MSFT and maybe GOOG coz I have a huge position there but I'm still looking to see where their capex is going lol PLTR is a solid cash printing machine tho
- Of the $42b loss, $34b is attributed to warrants issued at lower valuation that now have substantially higher valuation.
- For example, suppose I granted warrants at $3.4b at the time, and valuation has since surged by 10x.
- But it's a **one time** non-cash charge - it's not as if Anthropic needs to find $34b of cash to reverse this loss - it's not debt.
- You could almost view it as opposite effect of AMZN GOOGL and MSFT reporting huge sums of paper gains from their investments in Anthropic and OpenAI, even though they didn't sell yet.
- It's just a matter of keeping proper accounting records.
- Now Goog is my next cash cow, just be patient, within two weeks maybe October 1st, the will release the new gemini pro model.
- This thing is gonna be wicked, also compared to pricing.
- Goog is running on Broadcoms TPU's which makes them a hell of a lot cheaper than all the other models that need to rent capacity running on NVIDIA GPU.
- If goog is working on this thing for over a year, you know enough!
- Bought the dip on some stocks and they have recovered nicely.
Day by day
| Date | Close | Change | R500 | Mentions | Positive | Upvotes | Voted sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Oct 01 | 512.80 | -0.02% | #300 | 47 | 32 | 78 | -5.0 |
| Wed Sep 30 | 512.90 | +0.77% | #56 | 18 | 9 | 21 | -3.3 |
| Tue Sep 29 | 508.96 | -0.05% | #217 | 17 | 12 | 90 | 41.8 |
| Mon Sep 28 | 509.22 | -1.35% | #380 | 35 | 27 | 43 | -0.2 |
| Sun Sep 27 | 25 | 21 | 40 | 10.6 | |||
| Sat Sep 26 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -1.3 | |||
| Fri Sep 25 | 516.17 | +3.66% | #15 | 84 | 66 | 166 | 51.1 |
| Thu Sep 24 | 497.93 | -0.53% | #269 | 26 | 20 | 30 | 0.8 |
| Wed Sep 23 | 500.59 | +0.52% | #100 | 51 | 37 | 60 | -3.0 |
| Tue Sep 22 | 498.00 | -0.72% | #340 | 50 | 30 | 117 | 57.5 |
| Mon Sep 21 | 501.61 | +1.59% | #119 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 2.9 |
| Sun Sep 20 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | |||
| Sat Sep 19 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | |||
| Fri Sep 18 | 493.78 | -0.80% | #279 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 |
| Thu Sep 17 | 497.75 | +1.52% | #108 | 6 | 3 | 19 | -13.1 |
| Wed Sep 16 | 490.30 | -1.37% | #344 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 1.6 |
| Tue Sep 15 | 497.12 | -1.64% | #392 | 25 | 14 | 38 | -0.2 |
| Mon Sep 14 | 505.41 | +1.97% | #90 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1.1 |
| Sun Sep 13 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | |||
| Sat Sep 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | |||
| Fri Sep 11 | 495.63 | +0.65% | #232 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0.8 |
| Thu Sep 10 | 492.44 | +0.16% | #144 | 17 | 12 | 29 | 10.2 |
| Wed Sep 09 | 491.65 | -0.47% | #163 | 5 | 4 | 18 | -4.0 |
| Tue Sep 08 | 493.95 | -1.15% | #269 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 0.2 |
| Mon Sep 07 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | |||
| Sun Sep 06 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.7 | |||
| Sat Sep 05 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 3.1 | |||
| Fri Sep 04 | 499.70 | -2.04% | #445 | 25 | 19 | 39 | 8.7 |
| Thu Sep 03 | 510.12 | +2.68% | #52 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1.7 |
| Wed Sep 02 | 496.82 | -0.84% | #411 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -0.0 |