MSI
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MSI +1.23% on the last session vs SPY +0.29%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MSI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
456.56 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
462.61 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 457.27 · prior close 451.73 | |
| Bargain buy side |
446.95 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
441.11 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 445.41 | 2 in 10 days | 458.14 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 446.95 | 3 in 10 days | 456.56 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 448.39 | 4 in 10 days | 455.09 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 437.71 | 2 in 10 weeks | 466.20 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 441.11 | 3 in 10 weeks | 462.61 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 444.30 | 4 in 10 weeks | 459.29 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MSI's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among MSI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 550.00 +20.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 526.91 +15.2% |
| All-time closing high Nov 8, 2024 |
493.92 +8.0% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 1, 2026 |
489.97 +7.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 476.00 +4.1% |
| 50-day average | 463.64 +1.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 462.61 +1.2% |
| Now | 457.27 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
451.73 -1.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 441.11 -3.5% |
| 200-day average | 432.40 -5.4% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 12, 2025 |
360.52 -21.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 65 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.