MSM
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MSM −1.65% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −1.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open: EPS $1.37 expected (4 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MSM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
134.46 +1.4% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% |
136.81 +3.2% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 130.39 · prior close 132.58 | |
| Bargain buy side |
130.73 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
128.48 -3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 130.14 | 2 in 10 days | 135.07 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 130.73 | 3 in 10 days | 134.46 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 131.29 | 4 in 10 days | 133.88 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 127.18 | 2 in 10 weeks | 138.21 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 128.48 | 3 in 10 weeks | 136.81 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 129.71 | 4 in 10 weeks | 135.52 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MSM's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | +3.9% | +0.3% | — | — |
| Jul 21, 2026 | +1.8% | -1.3% | -4.8% | — |
| Jun 16, 2026 | +2.7% | -0.6% | +7.2% | +3.5% |
| May 11, 2026 | +2.9% | -2.5% | +7.3% | +12.7% |
| Apr 8, 2026 | +6.4% | -0.9% | +9.1% | +27.2% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | +3.2% | +3.5% | +1.5% | +14.1% |
| Aug 27, 2025 | +0.6% | +1.0% | -0.9% | -2.6% |
| Jul 1, 2025 | +6.2% | +1.4% | -3.2% | +3.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among MSM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 136.81 +4.9% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2026 |
132.58 +1.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
132.58 +1.7% |
| Now | 130.39 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 128.48 -1.5% |
| 50-day average | 122.96 -5.7% |
| 200-day average | 106.50 -18.3% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 7, 2026 |
78.90 -39.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 31 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.