MT
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
61.15 +2.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
62.84 +5.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 62.40 · prior close 59.81 | |
| Bargain buy side |
58.50 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
56.93 -4.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 58.08 | 2 in 10 days | 61.59 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 58.50 | 3 in 10 days | 61.15 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 58.90 | 4 in 10 days | 60.74 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 56.02 | 2 in 10 weeks | 63.86 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 56.93 | 3 in 10 weeks | 62.84 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 57.78 | 4 in 10 weeks | 61.91 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MT's daily swings (about 2.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | -5.2% | +2.7% | — | — |
| Oct 7, 2026 | -4.4% | +0.3% | — | — |
| Sep 29, 2026 | -2.7% | -4.1% | -11.3% | — |
| Sep 18, 2026 | -3.5% | -2.5% | -13.6% | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -2.6% | +0.2% | -14.6% | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -4.7% | +5.0% | +2.0% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -2.8% | +0.2% | +7.8% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -3.3% | +1.1% | +13.2% | -4.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among MT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 5, 2008 |
168.39 +169.8% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 4, 2026 |
78.74 +26.2% |
| 50-day average | 68.39 +9.6% |
| 200-day average | 63.61 +1.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 62.84 +0.7% |
| Now | 62.40 |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
59.81 -4.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 56.93 -8.8% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 4, 2025 |
36.41 -41.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 29 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.