MTD
Moving with its group (XLV +2.6%)
- MTD +1.89% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +1.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.6% (+2.6 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, 52-week high ($1,639.66 today so far, above its 52-week closing high of $1,609.27): After its 6 new 52-week highs in the past 5 years, MTD was higher a day later 2 times out of 6; half the outcomes fell between -0.5% and +0.7%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Overweight, raised target $1,575 → $1,700.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MTD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
1,636.39 +1.7% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 28% reached today |
1,670.55 +3.8% ↓ less often after a new 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 27% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 1,639.66 · prior close 1,609.27 | |
| Bargain buy side |
1,582.60 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
1,550.24 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 1,574.03 | 2 in 10 days | 1,645.30 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 1,582.60 | 3 in 10 days | 1,636.39 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 28% |
| Eager | 1,590.63 | 4 in 10 days | 1,628.13 | 4 in 10 days↓ 43% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 1,531.53 | 2 in 10 weeks | 1,690.96 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 1,550.24 | 3 in 10 weeks | 1,670.55 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 27% vs 30% |
| Eager | 1,567.88 | 4 in 10 weeks | 1,651.76 | 5 in 10 weeks↓ 45% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MTD's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 27% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | +1.8% | -2.5% | — | — |
| Nov 24, 2025 | +1.2% | -1.6% | -3.6% | -6.3% |
| Oct 23, 2025 | +4.1% | -4.2% | +1.0% | -0.8% |
| May 10, 2024 | +17.0% | +0.8% | -4.6% | -8.7% |
| Apr 17, 2023 | +1.2% | -1.4% | -14.0% | -16.3% |
| Jan 20, 2023 | +2.8% | -2.0% | -6.6% | -0.1% |
| Dec 22, 2021 | +2.1% | +6.1% | -8.9% | -14.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among MTD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Dec 30, 2021 |
1,702.53 +3.8% |
| Highest analyst target | 1,700.00 +3.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 1,670.55 +1.9% |
| Now | 1,639.66 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
1,639.66 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
1,609.27 -1.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 1,550.24 -5.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 1,508.31 -8.0% |
| 50-day average | 1,439.61 -12.2% |
| 200-day average | 1,325.86 -19.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 1,200.00 -26.8% |
| 52-week closing low May 13, 2026 |
1,025.53 -37.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 29 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.