MTN
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MTN +3.37% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +3.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices MTN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
152.56 +2.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
156.50 +4.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 154.48 · prior close 149.45 | |
| Bargain buy side |
146.40 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
142.72 -4.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 145.42 | 2 in 10 days | 153.59 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 146.40 | 3 in 10 days | 152.56 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 147.32 | 4 in 10 days | 151.61 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 140.60 | 2 in 10 weeks | 158.86 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 142.72 | 3 in 10 weeks | 156.50 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 144.72 | 4 in 10 weeks | 154.33 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From MTN's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among MTN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 5, 2021 |
297.18 +92.4% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 29, 2026 |
157.55 +2.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 156.50 +1.3% |
| Now | 154.48 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
149.45 -3.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 142.72 -7.6% |
| 50-day average | 140.92 -8.8% |
| 200-day average | 133.53 -13.6% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 24, 2026 |
115.39 -25.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 30 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.